By Polina Devitt
LONDON (Reuters) – Gold stocks in Comex warehouses are on track to hit new records over the coming days due to the risk of import tariffs curtailing shipments to the United States from other countries, analysts and traders say.
Latest data from Comex, part of CME Group, shows gold stored in its warehouses in the United States at an all-time high of 43.3 million troy ounces worth $135 billion at current prices compared with 17.1 million in November when Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.
Spot gold prices surged past $3,100 per ounce to a fresh record high on Monday. Bullion is up 19% so far this year after rising 27% in 2024. [GOL/]
Flows may have slowed recently, but sources say gold is still being flown to the U.S. as Trump has promised to unveil a massive tariff plan on Wednesday, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day.”
“There is still material going to the U.S. almost daily,” said a source from a Swiss refinery. Switzerland is the world’s biggest bullion refining and transit hub.
Between December and March, 25.4 million ounces of gold worth $79 billion were delivered to Comex as the risk of U.S. import tariffs widened the premium between Comex futures and London spot prices.
As gold travels quickly by airplanes, these flows are the most striking example of the pricing and physical dislocation caused in the market by the uncertainty.
Comex gold stocks are now equal to five years of U.S. total gold consumption, estimated by BNP Paribas at 8.8 million ounces a year.
“I would be surprised if anyone started exporting gold out of the U.S. any time soon,” Adrian Ash, head of research at London-based BullionVault.
If gold is excluded from U.S. import tariffs, the market could see a reversal, perhaps muted, of the trend.
“If that is confirmed, I see no reason why some of those bars should not head back to London, which remains the main trading hub for physical gold,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
In London, the world’s largest over-the-counter gold trading hub, the shock of massive supplies to New York has been absorbed and the liquidity improved as the market borrowed from central banks, storing their bullion at the Bank of England’s (BoE) vaults.
The waiting time to load gold out of the BoE vaults has narrowed to 2-3 weeks from 4-6 weeks in January, according to three sources familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to reveal operations.
BoE declined to comment.
The London Bullion Market Association reported 8,477 metric tons as of the end of February – that is still six times more gold stored in the London vaults than there is in Comex gold stocks. The price discovery process remains in London, according to analysts.
(Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Pratima Desai and Aurora Ellis)
