By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL, March 30 (Reuters) – South Korea’s March exports probably rose at the strongest pace in nearly five years on a boom in chip demand fuelled by artificial intelligence investment, although the Iran war was set to drive up imports and inflation, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 44.9% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 11 economists.
That would be faster than the 28.7% rise in February and the strongest since May 2021. It would also mark the 10th consecutive month of year-on-year gains.
“Semiconductor prices are continuing to rise sharply on robust demand for memory chips,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, expecting this year’s trade surpluses at record levels.
In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 50.4%, as semiconductor sales surged 163.9%. Shipments to the U.S. and China rose 57.8% and 69.0%, respectively, while those to the European Union were up 6.6%.
“However, due to the impact of high oil prices, import growth will also be higher than previously projected,” said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities. “It is expected that there will be some disruption to shipments to the Middle East.”
In Monday’s monthly survey, imports were forecast to have risen 18.0% in March from a year earlier, after growing 7.5% in February. That would mark the biggest jump since September 2022.
The median forecast for the country’s monthly trade balance stood at $21.2 billion, wider than $15.4 billion in the previous month and a record high.
Consumer inflation probably accelerated in March to 2.4%, the fastest pace in four months. Inflation was 2.0% in February.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for March on Wednesday, April 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
