By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW, March 31 (Reuters) – The Russian economy will grow by 0.8% this year, down from a forecast of 1% a month ago, according to a Reuters poll published on Tuesday, echoing an earlier government announcement that the official forecast could be downgraded.
The government forecasts economic growth of 1.3% in 2026, but Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned last week that this forecast could be revised downward in April as he expected a “tough” first half of the year.
“The view that the economy faces a high risk of excessive cooling remains valid,” Alfa Bank analysts said in comments on their forecast, noting an increased likelihood of a slight contraction in real GDP in the first quarter of 2026.
The poll compiled forecasts from 16 economists.
Reshetnikov said that even further cuts in the central bank’s key interest rate were unlikely to help the slowing economy this year. Analysts saw the central bank cutting the rate to 14.5% from the current 15% at an April board meeting.
The analysts saw the key rate falling to 12% by the end of the year, a level that businesses view as necessary to resume investment, implying that economic growth will resume in 2027.
INFLOW OF FOREIGN CURRENCY
After a sharp slowdown in economic growth to 1% in 2025 from 4.9% a year earlier, and a contraction in January, the economy and the state budget are set to receive a boost from windfall oil revenues after global prices spiked because of the Middle East crisis.
In light of an expected inflow of foreign currency, the analysts revised their medium-term forecast for the rouble, seeing it weakening to 88.25 per U.S. dollar in 12 months, rather than to 91 as forecast one month ago.
In the short term, the analysts expected the rouble, which weakened by 5.7% in March to 81.75, to strengthen again as oil revenues trickle into the market. Full-year inflation was now seen slightly higher, at 5.5% instead of 5.3% in last month’s poll.
“Foreign currency inflows are likely to pick up gradually in the coming weeks and months, supporting the rouble and helping it strengthen into the 75 to 80 per dollar range,” said Olga Belenkaya of UK Pervaya brokerage.
(Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya; Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Susan Fenton)
