By Rick Noack, Mubasher Bukhari and Asif Shahzad
ISLAMABAD, July 16 (Reuters) – Attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis this week have frustrated Pakistan and threaten to draw Islamabad into the conflict, complicating any future role it may have as a mediator between the United States and Iran.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan, which helped broker an interim deal last month in the war between Washington and Tehran, signed a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia last year and thousands of Pakistani soldiers have been deployed to the kingdom, alongside a squadron of fighter jets.
Pakistan had already voiced anger about Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia earlier this year, but regional analysts and officials said the attacks this week had pushed Islamabad’s frustration with Iran to a new level as they raised the prospect of a new Saudi-Houthi conflict.
The Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after accusing the kingdom of bombing an airport under their control on Monday. The cross-border fire pierced a four-year truce but has so far been contained to a single incident.
“Our top civil and military leaders have conveyed to Iran at the highest level that the attacks on Saudi Arabia are attacks on Pakistan,” a Pakistani official told Reuters. “It is our red line.”
The source and other Pakistani officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to speak publicly.
“Pakistan wasn’t anticipating that the tensions will rise so suddenly,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, a Pakistani security analyst.
Pakistan’s frustration appears rooted in growing concerns that Houthi involvement may be more likely to draw Pakistan into the conflict than the Iranian missile strikes were earlier this year. Pakistani soldiers are deployed near the Saudi border with Yemen, two Pakistani officials said, increasing their direct exposure.
There are also concerns in Islamabad that a Houthi-led escalation could disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, an important trade route that Pakistan and many other countries depend on. A widening conflict there could be more difficult to contain and could target Saudi interests in a way that forces Pakistan to intervene militarily under the terms of its mutual defence pact.
Ghulam Mustafa, a retired Pakistani general, said that for now “Pakistan’s top leaders are still engaged in appeasing all stakeholders.” But he cautioned that this could change “if the Houthis expand the radius of their attacks in Saudi Arabia.”
MOUNTING CONCERNS
This week’s tensions between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia have fueled broader concerns in Islamabad about Iran.
Two Pakistani government officials said growing divisions within the Iranian leadership have been watched with concern in Islamabad.
The views and objectives of Iran’s political leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, increasingly differ from those of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Pakistani officials said.
“The military seems to be dominating the decision making in Iran,” said Muhammad Ali, a Pakistani defence analyst, adding that this is increasingly “being recognised in Islamabad.”
The recent escalation contributed to the postponement of a visit by an Iranian delegation to Islamabad earlier this week that had not been announced publicly, two Pakistani officials said.
The delegation, led by Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, arrived in Islamabad two days later than planned, on Wednesday, the officials said, with the talks expected to include conversations about the U.S.-Iran deal.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry and the country’s military media wing did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In a briefing on Thursday, foreign ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said Pakistan calls “on all parties to exercise maximum restraint” and that “there is no alternative to sustained engagement, dialogue, and diplomacy.”
PAKISTANI DOUBLE ROLE
As Pakistan seeks a more prominent regional role, analysts say it will also increasingly face the challenges that come with such exposure.
When Pakistan’s defence deal with Saudi Arabia was announced last September, it was widely seen as a sign that Gulf Arab states were growing increasingly wary about the reliability of the United States as a security guarantor and looking to Pakistan and other countries as a possible alternative.
But Pakistan is deeply reliant on Middle Eastern countries for oil and gas. The tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Pakistan’s supply routes, and the government imposed emergency measures including early business closures to prevent a fuel shortage.
Mediating between the U.S. and Iran has been at least as much about reopening these supply routes as it has been about diplomatic influence, according to analysts and Pakistani officials.
“Yes, there is frustration, but that doesn’t mean that we are abandoning this project,” one official said, referring to the mediation. “We have invested a lot in it, and we have an interest in keeping it afloat.”
Pakistan has rarely appeared closer to having to choose a side than this week, however.
“It’s in everyone’s best interest for the war to end,” said a different Pakistani source aware of the mediation. “But if Saudi calls us in, we will stand by them and there is no doubt about that.”
(Reporting by Ariba Shahid in Karachi, Asif Shahzad in Islamabad, and Mubasher Bukhari in Lahore, Writing by Rick Noack, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
