Oct 1 (Reuters) – Investors stayed bearish on most emerging Asian currencies, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, as high oil prices fuelled concerns over external balances in net energy-importing economies and rising US yields boosted the dollar’s appeal.
Short positions on the Indonesian rupiah rose to the highest since late July, while bearish bets on the Philippine peso, Thailand’s baht and the Indian rupee remained firm, a survey of 10 respondents showed.
Elevated oil prices threaten to widen external deficits and fuel inflation in oil-importing economies while pushing US Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and reducing the appeal of Asian assets.[O/R]
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield jumped to a 22-year high last week as more Federal Reserve officials said additional tightening may be needed to curb inflation. [US/]
Bond prices around the world have been under pressure for months as the US-Israeli war on Iran has pushed up energy prices while growth has remained resilient.
Higher oil prices are likely to erode the current-account buffers of net oil-importing economies, while widening yield differentials in favour of the dollar have made their currencies less attractive to investors, said Jeff Ng, head of Asia macro strategy at SMBC.
Jeff said the Indian rupee, the Philippine peso and the Thai baht were among the most vulnerable currencies.
Short positions on the rupiah and the baht were at their highest since late July. The two currencies have been among the worst performers in the region this year.
The baht has little rate support to cushion it from elevated US yields as the Bank of Thailand’s policy rate stands at just 1%, MUFG analysts said.
Bearish views on the Indian rupee were at the highest since early June as the currency remained under pressure from rising oil prices and surging global bond yields, although repeated interventions by the central bank limited its losses.
Fiona Lim, a senior FX strategist at Maybank, said, “central banks are cognizant of this environment (high yields and crude prices) and have pledged to keep regional currencies stable”.
Bullish bets remained firm on the South Korean won for the fifth consecutive survey, with strong AI-related chip exports supporting the country’s current-account surplus and underpinning confidence in the won, according to SMBC’s Jeff.
The won, up more than 5% against the dollar so far this year, is one of only three emerging Asian currencies in positive territory, alongside the Singapore dollar and the Chinese yuan.
Meanwhile, the Malaysian ringgit stayed largely resilient, supported by Malaysia’s position as a net energy exporter, which benefits from higher oil and gas prices that have weighed on many of its import-dependent neighbours.
Bullish positions on the Chinese yuan extended a year-long run, while long bets on the Singapore dollar stayed consistent since early August.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DATE USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/SGD USD/IDR USD/TWD USD/INR USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/THB
1-Oct-26 -0.92 -1.27 -0.32 1.12 0.24 0.92 0.10 1.27 1.01
17-Sep-26 -0.88 -1.54 -0.52 0.40 -0.08 0.57 0.26 1.44 0.91
3-Sep-26 -0.75 -1.70 -0.56 0.49 -0.27 0.42 0.02 1.29 0.80
20-Aug-26 -0.95 -1.31 -0.54 0.59 0.15 0.33 -0.04 0.74 0.50
6-Aug-26 -0.81 -1.00 -0.25 1.05 0.79 0.46 0.23 0.63 0.81
23-Jul-26 -0.63 0.19 0.20 1.18 1.19 0.82 0.38 1.14 1.30
9-Jul-26 -0.65 1.42 0.25 1.53 1.00 0.74 0.39 1.16 1.01
25-Jun-26 -0.96 1.63 0.17 1.56 0.61 0.54 0.59 1.05 1.08
11-Jun-26 -1.25 1.69 -0.19 2.11 0.58 1.23 0.13 1.24 0.98
28-May-26 -1.40 0.95 -0.63 1.84 0.15 1.43 -0.73 1.35 0.75
(Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
