SHANGHAI, Oct 19 (Reuters) – China is set to leave benchmark lending rates unchanged for a 17th consecutive month in October, a Reuters survey showed, after better-than-expected third-quarter GDP data lessened prospects for near-term easing.
The loan prime rate (LPR), normally charged to banks’ most creditworthy clients, is calculated each month after 20 designated commercial banks submit proposed rates to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
In a Reuters survey of 22 market participants conducted this week, all respondents predicted that the one-year and five-year LPRs would remain unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, at the upcoming review on Tuesday.
China’s economic growth bounced off three-year lows in the third quarter, as roaring exports offset consumers’ tight grip on their wallets, though analysts warn the growing reliance on external drivers is deepening structural imbalances.
Market participants expect Beijing to reach its 2026 growth target of 4.5%-5.0% without resorting to additional stimulus, helped by a strong start to the year and some recent modest fiscal and monetary support.
The overwhelming consensus for steady LPR settings comes as some major economies tilt towards tighter monetary policy to contain inflation pressures, while China’s long-dated bond yields hovered near a 15-month low.
Investors are turning to a key financial forum in Beijing this afternoon, where PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng is due to speak, for clues on the country’s monetary path.
Meanwhile, China’s new home prices fell again in September, extending a more than three-year slump and suggesting policy support has yet to spark a broad-based recovery in housing demand.
(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Kevin Buckland)
