By Huseyin Hayatsever
IZMIR, Turkey, Oct 30 (Reuters) – When Turkey’s opposition made big gains in local elections in March 2024, its leaders believed they had finally found a way to defeat long-serving President Tayyip Erdogan.
More than two years later, the opposition’s leading presidential challenger is in prison, its main party has been split by a court ruling and some of the opposition figures who were elected as mayors have defected to Erdogan’s AK Party.
The opposition remains defiant. It says it retains faith in democratic elections and that voters will reject what they see as a politically motivated legal crackdown on government opponents in the next national elections, due in 2028.
The opposition now faces a challenge to harness and sustain people’s anger until then over what they say is government coercion under Erdogan, who has been in power as prime minister and then president for 23 years.
“I do not believe this anger has disappeared,” said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of the IstanPol Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank.
“However, unless this anger is channelled into political energy or organisational energy, it will fade away. It may evolve into disappointment, hopelessness or apathy.”
The government denies the legal cases against its opponents are politically motivated and says the judiciary operates independently.
IZMIR MAYOR’S DEFECTION
Few places capture the opposition’s challenges better than Izmir in western Turkey on the Aegean coast.
The AK Party has never managed to win Izmir, the country’s third-largest city with about 4.5 million residents, at the ballot box, but this month Mayor Cemil Tugay, who was elected on an opposition ticket in 2024, defected to Erdogan’s party.
Tugay’s defection represents a significant symbolic setback in what has long been regarded as the heartland of Turkey’s secular, social democratic opposition.
Tugay says he did so because it was “in the best interests of Izmir” and Erdogan has dismissed as slander opposition allegations that Tugay switched parties under pressure.
But the opposition New Party’s head in Izmir expressed confidence that voters in the city would show their opposition to Tugay’s move and what he depicted as government coercion when they vote in the next national elections.
“The government believes it can steer this process through coercion, but it will realise that it has made a grave miscalculation in the election,” Cagatay Guc, the New Party’s head in Izmir, told Reuters.
The New Party, which is led nationally by politician Ozgur Ozel, staged protests before Tugay’s defection and believes many local voters oppose his change of allegiance.
In interviews with Reuters, many Izmir residents criticised Tugay’s decision.
“It was Tugay who joined the AK Party, not the people of Izmir,” said a 50-year-old man who gave his name only as Koray for fear of recriminations. “The AK Party can never win over the people of Izmir.”
A 67-year-old woman who gave her name only as Halide said: “We have never voted for that side (the AK Party) anyway … and now we’ll vote for Ozgur Ozel.”
Some residents said they agreed with Tugay that Izmir, one of the largest industrial and trade centres of Turkey, might receive more municipal services under a mayor representing the governing party.
“As a resident of Izmir, I want to see more municipal services in our city… With the necessary support from government, this city will be rebuilt, I hope,” said a 46-year-old man, who gave his name only as Isa.
One resident suggested Tugay had “no other choice” than to switch parties.
“He would either end up in Silivri, or carry on by switching parties,” said 53-year-old Alpay, referring to a prison west of Istanbul where many opposition figures are jailed.
LOSING FAITH IN CHANGE?
Inmates at Silivri include Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is regarded as Erdogan’s chief rival. In the 2024 local elections, Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul for a second term from the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which won 37.8% of the vote and also retained Ankara, Izmir and many other big cities.
Those successes encouraged the opposition to view control of Turkey’s biggest cities as a platform from which to challenge Erdogan nationally.
Dozens of mayors and hundreds of municipal officials are now in jail along with Imamoglu, who is awaiting trial on corruption charges which he denies.
The CHP has been split after a court ruling ousting Ozel as its leader and reinstating former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Ozel, a close ally of Imamoglu, launched the New Party in response, hoping to sustain voter anger over the pressure on the opposition.
“If voters lose faith that change is possible, why would they bother to vote?” said Tanju Tosun, a political science professor at Ege University in Izmir. “Voter turnout in the general election may fall slightly, particularly amongst voters of the opposition parties.”
Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2028 but a presidential adviser said this month that the elections would probably be held slightly earlier than expected. Doing so would allow Erdogan to sidestep constitutional limits and run again for office.
(Additional reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen in Istanbul, Ali Dinc in Izmir and Mirac Eren Dereli, Editing by Daren Butler and Timothy Heritage)
