By Ahmad Ghaddar
LONDON, Nov 3 – Gulf oil exports dipped in October from September’s levels, which were the highest since the Iran war started, data from two ship-tracking companies showed, although both said the figures could be revised upwards as more details on shipments emerge.
Faced with intensifying attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, which reached a record in October, tankers have also stepped up efforts to avoid detection, making Gulf oil flows harder to track and raising the likelihood of further revisions to preliminary export data.
Flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to Vortexa. That marks a drop from 18.9 million bpd in September but still represents roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.
“October data shows Middle East seaborne oil exports have pulled back slightly from recent post-war highs on heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz,” Vortexa analyst George Morris said.
The October figure is more likely to be revised up than down because many shuttle tankers going through the Strait switch off tracking signals as a safety measure, Vortexa said. This means satellite imagery is often needed to confirm shipments, creating a reporting lag.
Data from another company, Kpler, also showed a drop in shipments, with crude and condensate flows down about 1 million bpd from September. Kpler also said an upward revision was likely.
EXPORTS OF CRUDE RECOVERING FASTER THAN PRODUCTS
Vortexa sharply revised up the September figure compared with the data it made available to Reuters in early October, as more information on tankers became available, the company said.
Crude and condensate exports averaged 14.0 million bpd in October, or about 86% of pre-war levels, while refined product exports averaged 3.1 million bpd, or just over half of normal volumes, Vortexa said.
At a country level, Vortexa said Saudi Arabia’s exports were steady compared with September, while the UAE recorded the largest decline. Iraq, Oman and Kuwait all exported less, the figures showed.
Kpler’s figures on crude and condensate flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman show an average of about 16.1 million bpd in October, down from 17.09 million bpd in September.
Both companies’ figures exclude Iran, which is not exporting due to the US blockade.
(Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, editing by Alex Lawler and Tomasz Janowski)
