Nov 12 (Reuters) – El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 79% chance of a strong-to-very strong event through January to March 2027, the US Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
The forecaster added that such a strong event made impacts linked to the phenomenon more likely, though not guaranteed.
• El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, causing weather extremes around the world, including drought in some regions and heavy rainfall in others
• “Drought conditions and wildfires are causing problems in Malaysia and Indonesia. The southwest monsoon season in India was the driest monsoon since 2015,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather
• “If El Niño conditions continue deeper into 2027, then India’s 2027 monsoon could also be drier than normal,” Nicholls added
• In its October economic review, India’s finance ministry said an intensifying El Niño threatened soil moisture ahead of the winter sowing season, posing risks to economic growth, while Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra has warned that a weak monsoon and strong El Niño conditions pose risks to agriculture and rural demand
• India is the world’s largest rice exporter and a major producer of wheat, sugar and cotton; a below-normal monsoon can hurt yields and tighten supplies
• “In the US … a likely dry winter in the Corn Belt region could result in more irrigation needed to start the growing season in the spring,” said Chad Merrill, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Xevi Fontdegloria)
