By Steve Gorman, Daniel Trotta and Nandita Bose
(Reuters) -In the redistricting war being waged across the U.S., voters in California delivered a much-needed win for Democrats by approving a ballot measure that could gain the party five more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and act as a counterweight to Republican efforts in Texas and elsewhere.
But the political hostilities are far from over and are likely to favor Republicans as more states join the rush to redraw their voting districts midway through the traditional 10-year cycle, creating greater obstacles for Democrats and less competitive races for both parties across the country.
A senior White House official acknowledged that the Democrats’ victory will require the Republicans to respond urgently, with plans under way to redraw voting districts and convene special legislative sessions in multiple states.
The passage of Proposition 50 with 64% of the vote in Tuesday’s election also hands a victory to California Governor Gavin Newsom ahead of his possible presidential run in 2028. Newsom pushed the measure to foil what he has called a power grab instigated by President Donald Trump, who had set off a coast-to-coast redistricting arms race that is unprecedented in modern American politics and could alter the balance of power on Capitol Hill.
VOTERS WARY OF GERRYMANDERING
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found 55% of Americans believe redrawing congressional lines to maximize political gain, a practice known as gerrymandering, is bad for democracy.
“This is a race to the bottom,” said David Daley, the author of three books on what he considers the undemocratic effects of partisan gerrymandering.
The process of redistricting – the redrawing of the boundaries that define each state’s congressional districts – has traditionally been conducted once a decade following the U.S. Census.
But Trump’s White House has pressured Republican-led states, starting with Texas, to reshape their congressional districts mid-decade to help preserve the Republicans’ 219-216 majority in next year’s congressional elections.
Democrats have initiated redistricting plans in Illinois, Virginia and Maryland, but all face obstacles. Meanwhile Republican efforts have advanced in Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri and have potential in Indiana, Florida, Nebraska, Kentucky and New Hampshire.
Even with California canceling out Texas, Daley said he expects Republicans to net seven to 10 seats in 2026, with more states possibly coming into play depending on a voting rights case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court.
“Republicans still have a lot of other states where they can make gains and Democrats have essentially run out of rope,” Daley said.
The senior White House official said Trump aides were coordinating with House Republicans on the remapping strategy and deployment of resources, noting that in some districts a seemingly small shift in lines can “turn a safe seat into a toss-up or a toss-up into a clear opportunity.”
“It is not enough to defend seats, we must expand them and recalibrate in states where lines are now changing,” the official said. “We’re advising members that these map fights will ripple into committee jurisdictions, federal funding conversations, and House majority math.“
If the trend continues, nearly all 435 seats in the House could be safe for one party or the other, leaving perhaps 12 to 16 competitive races, Daley said.
Redistricting normally takes place in state legislatures. But California, which had prided itself on a bipartisan and independent system for drawing its boundaries that voters adopted in 2008, had to put its new maps to a popular vote. Newsom argued a temporary measure was needed to fight back against Republican maneuvering in other states. Previous redistricting rules will resume after 2030.
Democrats, already holding 43 of California’s 52 U.S. House seats, hope the new congressional maps will gain them five additional districts in 2026.
That would counterbalance five additional seats Republicans are expected to gain in Texas following the redistricting approved by the legislature and signed by Governor Greg Abbott in August.
Trump on Tuesday called the California ballot proposal “unconstitutional” and said mail-in ballots were under “very serious legal and criminal review,” without giving any evidence for his claims.
California election officials asked the Trump administration for proof of any irregularities. On X Newsom called Trump’s post “The ramblings of an old man that knows he’s about to LOSE.”
In the city of Oceanside, Andrea Martin, 27, a teacher, said she voted for the proposition to put the brakes on Trump.
“I’m concerned that we’re going to turn into the country where I came from, which is Cuba, which is a disgusting dictatorship,” Martin said.
Republicans voted “no” in support of their president.
“I’m a Make America Great Again girl, a Charlie Kirk girl,” said Carla Jetton, 58, a controller for a private lender, referring to the president’s political slogan and his political supporter who was assassinated in Utah in September. “They’re just hating on Trump, that’s why he (Newsom) is doing it.”
(Reporting by Steve Gorman in Los Angeles, Daniel Trotta in Oceanside, and Nandita Bose in Washington; editing by Donna Bryson and Alistair Bell)
