TAIPEI, July 8 (Reuters) – China’s gradually increasing pressure tactics risk creating an entirely new status quo in the Taiwan Strait, which the international community may not realise until it is too late, a senior Taiwan official said on Wednesday.
Speaking at a forum in Taipei, Kuan Bi-ling, head of Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council, which runs the coast guard, said China is pressuring not only Taiwan but also Japan and the Philippines with its maritime actions, including in the disputed South China Sea.
The greatest danger of such “grey zone” activities is that as they gradually step up, the status quo risks being changed almost without notice, Kuan said.
“Each individual action may not appear to trigger an international crisis. Each escalation of pressure may still be judged as not constituting war. But when a series of actions accumulates, it may create an entirely new status quo,” she said.
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, not only sends its military into the skies and waters around the island on a daily basis, but also uses other “grey zone” tactics that stop short of outright conflict to target Taipei.
That includes regular Coast Guard patrols off the island’s east coast, angering Taipei, which says China has no right to say it has maritime jurisdiction. China recognises no sovereignty claims by Taiwan.
China’s increasing pressure may, over time, lead to shipping routes being adjusted, insurance companies recalculating risk, and personnel on the frontlines may bearing greater pressure, Kuan said.
“And the international community, through repeated judgements that each incident is ‘not yet a crisis,’ may gradually become accustomed to things that should never be regarded as normal,” she said.
“In the end, we may suddenly discover that no decisive war ever occurred on any particular day, yet the original status quo no longer exists.”
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China blames Taiwan for the tensions, especially President Lai Ching-te whom it calls a “separatist”.
Lai says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future.
Last month, the United States, Britain, France and Germany expressed concern about new Chinese Coast Guard patrols off Taiwan’s east coast.
Also attending the forum where Kuan spoke was U.S. Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth, the first U.S. senator to visit Taiwan since U.S. President Donald Trump met China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing in May.
(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Michael Perry)
