By Ann Saphir
July 15 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policymakers preparing for their next policy meeting in two weeks got a fresh snapshot on Wednesday of a broadly improving economy, with employment on the rise but not straining wage bills, and inflation easing slightly but still delivering an unwelcome sting.
“Contacts generally expected the economy to continue to expand in the coming months, but several districts noted elevated uncertainty in the outlook for fuel costs,” the Fed said in its latest “Beige Book” report, which collects qualitative economic data from all 12 of its regional banks to give policymakers a real-time read on current conditions.
“Compared with the last reporting period, price growth was the same or slower in all districts,” it said. “Expectations for price growth over the coming months varied across districts, with contacts in some expecting inflation to continue at its current pace, while contacts in others expected inflation to slow, in part due to falling fuel prices.”
Elevated inflation pushed about half of the policymakers at the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting to project at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Kevin Warsh has been silent about his own rate-path view, even as he repeatedly promised to restore price stability and said the central bank has the tools to do so — a commitment he reiterated in back-to-back appearances before lawmakers in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A drop in fuel prices last month due to a preliminary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran helped cool inflation, data this week showed, but renewed hostilities this month have pushed oil prices back up and reignited inflation concerns.
WAR AND TARIFFS
There were far fewer references than in the prior report to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, with hostilities in a relative lull during the survey period and energy prices having eased somewhat and some guarded optimism about a resolution to the conflict. The data in the report was collected on or before July 6.
“Builders anticipated more bidding opportunities in the near term, an expectation which one contact attributed to decreased uncertainty pending a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East,” the Cleveland Fed reported.
Others cautioned that they expected some of the commodity price pressures arising from the conflict to persist as long as it continued, a concern borne out this week with the resumption of hostilities.
JOB MARKET
The report added color to recent comments from Fed officials about the job market firming in many areas and inflation continuing to be a thorn in the side of businesses and consumers.
“Elevated gasoline prices were hurting many workers’ budgets,” the Minneapolis Fed said. “Job seekers faced a shrinking number of open positions across a wide range of occupations. Those looking for employment as stockers, nursing assistants, heavy machinery operators, or customer service representatives had relatively better odds of finding a job.”
The labor market is not contributing to inflation, the report suggested — a point that Fed policymakers have also made.
“Some employers in Memphis reported that they have not increased wages over the past three months despite rising employee requests for raises,” the St. Louis Fed reported.
But non-labor input costs continue to rise, the report found, across “a variety of industries — including services, construction, and manufacturing — and reflected, in part, higher costs for energy, transportation, and raw materials.” Some contacts tied those cost increases to the conflict in the Middle East; others to tariffs, the report found. “Consumer prices continued to rise, and a few districts said contacts saw greater price sensitivity among their customers,” it said.
The FIFA World Cup was cited about a dozen times as contributing to activity in districts with cities that hosted matches, including Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, New York, Kansas City, and cities on the West Coast. “Bars in Greater Boston also saw a marked uptick in beer sales, which they attributed to the World Cup,” the Boston Fed reported.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir and Dan Burns; Editing by Paul Simao)
