July 17 (Reuters) – Earnings season kicks into gear this week with Alphabet, the first of the so-called hyperscalers, set to report, while the European Central Bank looks set to hold rates after a rate hike last time around.
Here’s all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets by Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore; Amanda Cooper, Yoruk Bahceli and Karin Strohecker in London and Lewis Krauskopf in New York.
ECB SET FOR PAUSE
The ECB is likely to stand pat on Thursday, after it became the first of the biggest central banks to hike rates since the Iran war began last month.
Policymakers’ relief at last month’s quick retreat in energy prices proved very short-lived following an escalation in the conflict, highlighting the uncertainty ahead.
Luckily for now, oil prices are far lower than levels they reached earlier in the conflict and the futures curve is between the baseline and milder scenarios the ECB laid out in June, so the picture hasn’t shifted enough for policymakers to hit the button on Thursday.
That means all focus will be on whatever clues traders sense about September, when they’re convinced the bank will hike rates again.
Economists don’t buy it, but traders have also boosted their bets on another rate hike following September, so watch whether ECB chief Lagarde gives them reason to stick with those bets.
SEEING RESULTS
A high-stakes earnings season for U.S. companies heats up in the coming week, with Alphabet headlining a busy slate of results that poses a challenge for a stock market near record highs.
Alphabet is the first of the “hyperscalers” to report this quarter, and investors will be highly sensitive to any changes the Google parent makes to its capital spending plans. Booming AI capex has been at the heart of this year’s rally, propelling soaring shares of semiconductor and other tech companies. A host of other major companies are also set to report, including Tesla, Intel and American Express.
With more than 40 companies having already reported, overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise by 25.7% from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES data as of Thursday.
This week, reports from major U.S. banks showed earnings powered ahead with a strong lift from fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions and surging trading revenue.
TAKE A CHANCELLOR ON ME
Investors in UK assets are feeling a lot more confident that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham will keep markets onside by sticking to the government’s strict rules on borrowing and spending.
The left-leaning former mayor of Greater Manchester takes on the role on Monday, when incumbent Keir Starmer steps down and his pick for finance minister has had investors on edge for weeks.
Interior minister Shabana Mahmood has emerged as the frontrunner. Her views on the economy are not especially well known among the investment community, but markets appear to be willing to give her the benefit of the doubt.
The pound has hit its highest in over a year against the euro and been one of the best-performing major currencies against the dollar lately. Even notoriously volatile UK government bonds have been sanguine.
The question now is whether Burnham and his choice of Chancellor can maintain that calm.
INDONESIA IN THE SPOTLIGHT
Macro traders face a challenging week ahead in Asia. Indonesia is expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday. The central bank is struggling to stabilise the currency after the country reported its first trade deficit in six years, while the government’s economic strategy continues to encounter scepticism from credit ratings agencies and global investors. S&P Dow Jones Global Indices joined MSCI this month in considering whether it should downgrade Indonesia to frontier-market status.
The People’s Bank of China will announce its loan prime rate on Monday, and while it is unlikely to change its policy settings, pressure is mounting on policymakers to accelerate growth after Wednesday’s GDP data – the country’s weakest quarter since the COVID-19 era.
Meanwhile, Japan releases trade balance data on Wednesday, as well as CPI figures and flash PMI readings on Friday.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
After five weeks of drama, shock exits and nail-biting finishes, the world’s biggest sporting event is down to its last game: Sunday’s finale pits reigning champions Argentina against European champions Spain in what should be an epic battle.
It’s been a bonanza not just for football, but for business, with fans splurging out on everything from flights and hotels to replica shirts and plenty of beer, creating a windfall for travel firms, sportswear makers and drinks companies.
One clear winner is Adidas, which backed 14 teams for the tournament. The German sportswear giant sponsors both finalists, guaranteeing itself a champion. Rival Nike struck out, with none of its 12 sponsored teams, including England and France, making the final.
Brewers have had a less straightforward ride. Early departures for big beer-drinking nations such as Brazil, Germany and Colombia curbed expectations for a sales windfall. But strong performances from several Western European teams, including the UK, France, Switzerland and Norway, could still leave Carlsberg raising a glass.
(Graphics by Prinz Magtulis, compiled by Samuel Indyk; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Alexandra Hudson)
