MEXICO CITY, July 27 (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy is likely to have recovered in the second quarter, driven mainly by a rebound in industrial activity, according to a Reuters poll on Monday.
The median forecast of 11 analysts found gross domestic product likely grew 1.3% between April and June in seasonally adjusted figures, following a 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter.
Should this be confirmed, it would mark Mexico’s best quarterly economic performance since the first quarter of 2022. Mexico’s statistics agency will release its preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP on Thursday.
“The expected improvement reflects a rebound in industrial activity and continued, albeit moderate, growth in services, broadly consistent with recent monthly indicators,” Itau said in a report.
Last week, a leading indicator for economic activity known as IOAE forecast an expansion in economic activity in June following a contraction in May.
The recovery was likely driven by a revival in secondary sectors, including manufacturing, mining and construction, according to the IOAE.
On an annual basis, GDP is estimated to have grown at a rate of 1.5%, up from a 0.2% increase in the first quarter, according to the poll.
In early July, the International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecast for the Mexican economy this year to 1.2% from a previously estimated 1.6%. The government responded that it expects a better performance than anticipated by the IMF.
The Ministry of Finance has estimated that GDP will grow between 1.8% and 2.8% this year, a projection that is also more optimistic than the market’s 1.1% forecast.
(Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires and Noé Torres in Mexico City; Writing by Iñigo Alexander; Editing by Daina Beth Solomon and Jan Harvey)
