JOHANNESBURG, Sept 16 (Reuters) – South African inflation expectations stabilised in the third quarter, a survey showed on Wednesday, after a steep rise in the previous quarter because of the oil price shock triggered by the Iran war.
• The quarterly survey is commissioned by the central bank and guides its thinking on the appropriate level of interest rates.
• The average forecast of analysts, business people and trade union officials was for headline consumer inflation of 4.4% this year, unchanged from the second-quarter survey.
• The average forecasts for 2027 and 2028 declined to 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively, from 4.2% and 3.9%. Those forecasts are important as the central bank says interest rate changes affect the economy with a lag of about 12 to 24 months.
• Inflation stood at 4.3% year on year in July, the latest month for which price data is available.
• The central bank targets inflation of 3% with a 1-percentage-point tolerance band either side of that.
• The bank surprised investors and economists by keeping its main lending rate unchanged in July after its first rate hike in three years in May.
• Its next rate announcement is scheduled for September 23.
(Reporting by Alexander WinningEditing by Bate Felix)
