By Andrius Sytas
VILNIUS (Reuters) – China is helping Russia’s military drone production by becoming a hub for the smuggling of critical Western components for Moscow’s armed forces, Estonia’s foreign intelligence said in its annual national security report published on Wednesday.
Some 80% of such components reaching Russia now come from China, it said. Previous Ukrainian reports have suggested that roughly 60% of foreign parts found in Russian weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine have come via China.
China is Russia’s “primary hub” for importing high-tech and dual-use goods, evading Western sanctions, according to the report.
“Chinese interests here lie in preventing Russia from losing the war in Ukraine as such an outcome would represent a victory for the United States, which is the main rival for China,” Kaupo Rosin, director general of the service, told reporters in a video call.
Reuters has sought comment on the report from China’s embassy in Tallinn.
NATO member Estonia closely tracks Russian military capabilities as it regards Moscow as the major threat to its security, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.
Estonia, like its Baltic neighbours Latvia and Lithuania, was forcibly annexed by Moscow during World War Two, regaining its independence only in 1991 as the Soviet Union fell apart.
Russia does not have domestic alternatives for drone parts, so these are largely sourced from the West, said the report.
“The Chinese government… facilitates bilateral cooperation and covert transfers of dual-use components through private companies,” it said.
“This approach will likely decrease Russia’s dependency on Western components and, in the long term, could undermine the West’s ability to leverage influence in this domain,” it said.
The offices of Western companies in China are likely involved in the schemes, said Estonian intelligence.
BOOSTING CAPABILITIES
Russia is investing heavily in expanding its drone production, including producing an advanced domestic version of Iranian one-way drones, said the report.
The Kremlin is on track to expand its military to 1.5 million personnel, up from 600-700 thousand in autumn 2022, with new units sent to Ukraine for combat experience, it said.
They will be deployed along borders with NATO countries – which include the Baltic states – after the war, said Rosin, adding that the alliance should reinforce its presence there.
Russia is “in principle willing” to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine but only “to catch breath” because President Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his “imperial ambitions”, Rosin said.
In any such negotiations, Russia is likely to push for NATO to remove its troops from NATO’s eastern border which, if successful, would give it dominance in the Baltic region.
Moscow denies having expansionist designs against its neighbours and says it had to send troops into Ukraine to counter what it regards as a hostile, aggressive West that threatens Russia’s own security.
(Reporting by Andrius Sytas in Vilnius; Editing by Gareth Jones)
