By Ella Cao, Trevor Hunnicutt and Naveen Thukral
BEIJING/SINGAPORE, May 12 (Reuters) – China and the United States may reach a farm deal at their summit this week that expands Beijing’s purchases of grains and meat, but market watchers said they did not expect major new soybean purchases beyond what was agreed in a deal last October.
Agriculture is among the less-contentious areas of the bilateral relationship, but the final shape of any deliverables from the May 14-15 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping remains uncertain just days out, officials, traders and analysts said.
The White House is seeking bigger commitments from Beijing on soybean and other agricultural purchases, said a person familiar with the talks.
“They know it’s something that they need. They know it’s something we want to sell. So, whether it’s at the trip or shortly thereafter is to be seen,” said a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters on the trip, without specifying any products.
More than a dozen CEOs and top executives, including Brian Sikes, chair of U.S. grain trader Cargill, will join Trump on his visit, according to a White House official.
However, traders and analysts said any deal is likely to be limited by what they see as Beijing’s unwillingness to buy more soybeans, the biggest-ticket crop, beyond a commitment made last October, given weak demand and cheap alternatives from Brazil.
Instead, markets are looking for new deals for corn, sorghum and milling wheat as well as beef and poultry, some of which was hinted at during high-level talks in March.
“There’s still some space to strike purchase deals for other major U.S. exports. That could take the form of volume purchase deals for key products like corn and sorghum,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.
In 2024, before Trump returned to office, China bought roughly $4.5 billion of those products, a sum dwarfed by $12 billion in soybeans.
China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
SOYBEAN STATUS QUO
China has dramatically scaled back its reliance on U.S. farm goods since Trump’s first term, sourcing roughly 20% of its soybeans from the U.S. in 2024, the year before he returned to office, down from 41% in 2016.
Last year, China bought just 15% of its soybeans from the U.S.
Markets are awaiting clarity on how China will fulfil last year’s commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually until 2028, which would be the most since 2022.
“China hasn’t ever officially confirmed the details of the agreement. It’s also not clear whether the targets apply to calendar years or crop years,” said Pay.
Any confirmation of renewed Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans would likely lift Chicago soybean prices, which are already near two-month highs, partly on expectations China will step up purchases.
“When President Trump and Xi meet, we’d be thrilled to see additional purchases from China that would put us closer to the typical amount of exports in a typical year,” said Virginia Houston, director of government affairs for the American Soybean Association, declining to specify a target volume.
(Reporting by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and Trevor Hunnicutt in Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Heather Schlitz in Chicago; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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